2026 Fantasy Football Busts: One ESPN Player to Avoid in Every Round
Thursday, July 23, 2026
You don't win your fantasy football league on draft day. Championships are built through smart trades, waiver-wire pickups, and lineup decisions over a long season. But you absolutely can lose your league before Week 1 by missing on your early-round picks.
Here are five 2026 fantasy football busts, one from each of the first five rounds, to avoid at their current ESPN PPR ADP.
Round 1 Bust: James Cook (ADP: 12)
James Cook finished as RB6 in PPR points per game last season, but I'm betting that was his ceiling—not his new baseline. You're paying for another career year despite multiple signs pointing toward regression.
The problem with Cook has never been efficiency—it's receiving volume. He's finished top-15 in both Yards Per Reception and Yards Per Route Run in all four NFL seasons, yet Buffalo has never consistently featured him as a pass catcher. He's been held under 40 receptions in three of those four years, limiting his weekly ceiling in PPR formats.
After finishing in the bottom quarter of the league in pass attempts, Buffalo made upgrading its receiving corps a priority. Adding D.J. Moore gives Josh Allen another proven weapon, making it even less likely Cook suddenly earns the receiving workload he'd need to justify a first-round price tag.
Without a significant increase in receiving usage, it's difficult to see Cook returning first-round value.
Cook is a good running back. That doesn't make him a good first-round fantasy pick. At this price, you need a player with a realistic path to outperform his ADP, not one who may have already produced his best fantasy season.
Draft Instead
Drake London
Ashton Jeanty
Round 2 Bust: Jeremiyah Love (ADP: 15)
Jeremiyah Love has all the tools to become a fantasy star. The problem is you're paying for that future today. Fantasy managers are drafting him like a top-15 player despite having almost no margin for error.
Love joins an Arizona Cardinals offense led by Jacoby Brissett behind a mediocre offensive line. The Cardinals averaged just 20.9 points per game last season, ranking in the bottom third of the NFL. Fewer scoring drives mean fewer touchdown opportunities, making it difficult for any running back to justify a second-round price.
Love's ADP feels like dynasty hype bleeding into redraft. He's an outstanding long-term prospect, but dynasty value and 2026 fantasy value aren't always the same thing.
Love's talent isn't up for debate. His athletic profile is elite, which explains why he was the consensus 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts. But talent alone doesn't guarantee immediate fantasy production when the surrounding offense projects among the league's worst.
Love may become a fantasy superstar. I just don't want to pay superstar prices before he's proven he can produce them.
Draft Instead
Chase Brown
Kenneth Walker
Round 3 Bust: Garrett Wilson (ADP: 34)
Garrett Wilson checks every analytical box you'd want in a fantasy wide receiver. He finished top-three among WRs last season in both Target Share and Air Yards Share. The problem? We've been waiting four years for those elite opportunity metrics to translate into consistent WR1 production.
Despite seeing alpha-level volume throughout his career, Wilson has finished as a top-20 receiver in PPR points per game only once. He's eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in three straight seasons, but 18 touchdowns in 58 career games simply isn't enough to justify a third-round fantasy pick.
Somehow Wilson's ESPN ADP has climbed from 41 last season to 34 this year. How? He disappointed relative to expectations, and the Jets responded by spending not one, but two first-round picks on pass catchers in Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper. That additional competition makes it even harder to project the elite target share Wilson has relied on to maintain his fantasy value.
Could Wilson finally put everything together? Absolutely. The talent has never been the question. But drafting him in Round 3 means paying for a breakout that fantasy managers have been expecting for four years. I'd rather invest in players who have already shown they can consistently outperform their ADP.
Draft Instead
Zay Flowers
Tetairoa McMillan
Round 4 Bust: Tyler Warren (ADP: 43)
I had to do a double-take when I saw Tyler Warren's ADP. He's the fourth tight end off the board on ESPN, but fantasy managers are drafting him as if he's already entered the Brock Bowers and Trey McBride tier. I don't see it.
To Warren's credit, the opportunity is there. With Michael Pittman out of the picture, he projects to be one of Indianapolis' primary passing-game weapons after finishing top-10 among tight ends in Targets, Routes Run, and Red Zone Targets last season. Volume won't be the issue.
The problem is opportunity cost. At this price, you're passing on proven running backs and wide receivers to draft a player who still hasn't demonstrated the week-winning ceiling of Bowers or McBride. If I'm spending a fourth-round pick on a tight end, I want a clear positional advantage, not the hope that one develops.
That's why I'd rather wait. George Kittle and Tucker Kraft offer similar weekly upside at a discount, while Kyle Pitts has a comparable ceiling several rounds later. The gap between Warren and the next tier of tight ends simply isn't large enough to justify his current price.
Tyler Warren can absolutely finish as a top-five fantasy tight end. I just don't believe he's worth drafting as if that outcome is already guaranteed.
Draft Instead
Jaylen Waddle
Bucky Irving
Round 5 Bust: TreVeyon Henderson (ADP: 55)
This is disgusting. TreVeyon Henderson is being drafted in the fifth round as if Rhamondre Stevenson has disappeared. He hasn't. Henderson is an exciting young running back, but his ADP assumes a workload that simply isn't there.
A fifth-round fantasy pick should be someone you're comfortable starting almost every week. That's difficult to justify for a player who still projects to split touches. Henderson's explosiveness gives him week-winning upside, but weekly volume wins fantasy championships.
Stevenson remains a major obstacle. He finished top-10 among running backs last season in Route Participation, Yards Per Reception, Yards Per Route Run, and Yards Created Per Touch. Henderson, meanwhile, finished outside the top 20 in the receiving categories and outside the top 50 in Yards Created Per Touch. That's a significant gap for a player being drafted nearly 50 picks earlier.
Could Henderson become the lead back by the end of the season? Absolutely. His explosiveness is undeniable, with 5.6% of his carries gaining at least 15 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns last year. But drafting him in Round 5 requires betting that New England quickly hands him the backfield, a projection I'm not willing to make.
Henderson doesn't need to fail to disappoint fantasy managers. He simply needs to fall short of the workload his ADP already assumes. I'll gladly take the discount if his price falls next season, but I'm letting someone else make that bet in 2026.
Draft Instead
David Montgomery
Rome Odunze
None of these players are bad fantasy options. They're simply being drafted at prices that leave little room for profit. Let someone else pay for the best-case scenario while you build a roster full of players who can outperform their ADP.
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